March Graduation Rate Madness

The 2007 NCAA Men's basketball tournament bracket has been announced. While nobody knows for sure who's going to win, a few things are certain. There will be thrilling upsets, bitter defeats, and Cinderella stories. Jim Valvano's mantra, "survive and advance," will be invoked roughly once every 47 seconds over the three-week period. Seth Davis will preen, Dick Vitale will annoy, and a lot of these basketball players will never graduate from college.

Because of college basketball, the federal government has been collecting graduation rate data from every four-year college in the country since the early 1990s. Bill Bradley sponsored the Student Right-to-Know Act in large part because he was concerned about colleges that recruited athletes but rarely helped them earn degrees. Grad rate data for individual sports programs is hard to come by, because the NCAA has since invented a more generous, alternative grad rate methodology. Also, federal privacy laws prohibit schools from publishing grad rates for very small groups of students--like, for example, a basketball team.

But we do have graduation rate data for schools as whole, broken down by students' race and gender. A few facts:

• The median six-year graduation rate for black men (not just basketball players, but the entire student population) at school that made the 2007 NCAA men's basketball tournament is 50.6%. The highest is Vanderbilt (92.6%), while the lowest is Memphis (18.9%). Seventeen schools graduate one-third or fewer black men within six years.
  
• The median grad rate for white men is 67.8%. Of the 48 schools that reported grad rates for both white men and black men, 43 have higher grad rates for white men than black men. The median graduation rate gap between black men and white men is 17.5 percentage points. The largest gap, 36.6 percentage points, is at Marquette.

Now, I know that a few people will leave school without a degree for good reasons--somehow I don't think Greg Oden will be getting his B.A. from Ohio State (go Buckeyes) in May 2010. But that's a rare exception. While it's true that some people will transfer to another school, giving the average college credit for students who transfer elsewhere and graduate on time only increases their graduation rate by about eight percentage points. And while some people will take longer than six years to finish, their numbers are also relatively small.

The bottom line is that many of these students arent's getting a degree from anywhere, ever. Graduation rates, particularly for minority students, are very low at many colleges and universities. Really, scandalously low. Here's the 2007 NCAA bracket, with grad rates for black men and white men in parantheses, in that order:

SOUTH
1. Ohio State (48.1 / 65.9)
16. Central Connecticut State (22.0 / 35.0)

8. B.Y.U. (NA / 57.4)
9. Xavier (69.2 / 80.5)

5. Tennessee (38.3 / 53.8)
12.Long Beach State (22.7 / 45.3)

4. Virginia (75.0 / 92.3)
13. Albany (50.6 / 59.6)

2. Memphis (18.9 / 30.2)
15. North Texas (35.3 / 35.0)

7. Nevada (19.2 / 46.6)
10. Creighton (NA / 75.9)

3. Texas A&M (51.4 / 74.2)
14. Penn (76.7 / 93.4)

6. Louisville (27.4 / 34.6)
11. Stanford (88.7 / 95.3)

EAST
1. North Carolina (61.8 / 82.8)
16. Eastern Kentucky (20.6 / 32.3)

8. Marquette (42.3 / 78.9)
9. Michigan State (51.9 / 75.6)

5. USC (61.2 / 81.5)
12. Arkansas (34.9 / 54.0)

4. Texas ( 57.5 / 72.2)
13. New Mexico State (31.8 / 39.5)

2. Georgetown (74.5 / 94.9)
15. Belmont (NA / 58.0)

7. Boston College (74.0 / 91.8)
10. Texas Tech (45.0 / 52.9)

3. Washington State (42.9 / 60.6)
14. Oral Roberts (33.3 / 56.0)

6. Vanderbilt (92.6 / 88.6)
11. George Washington (60.0 / 77.9)

WEST
1. Kansas (31.1 / 57.0)
16. Florida A&M (33.7 / 36.4) or Niagara (54.5 / 68.5)

8. Kentucky (31.9 / 57.2)
9. Villanova (69.2 / 83.4)

5. Virginia Tech (57.3 / 74.4)
12. Illinois (57.2 / 84)

4. Southern Illinois (24.3 / 41.2)
13. Holy Cross (72.7 / 92.8)

2. UCLA (60.0 / 86.0)
15. Weber State (NA / 41)

7. Indiana (40.3 / 71.9)
10. Gonzaga (NA / 74.5)

3. Pittsburgh (54.3 / 67.6)
14. Wright State (33.3 / 36.6)

6. Duke (81.4 / 94.4)
11. Virginia Commonwealth (31.9 / 35.9)

MIDWEST
1. Florida (60.0 / 77.8)
16. Jackson State (31.6 / NA)

8. Arizona (32.9 / 58.0)
9. Purdue (43.5 / 66.8)

5. Butler (69.2 / 68.0)
12. Old Dominion (42.2 / 39.5)

4. Maryland (59.8 / 77.8)
13. Davidson (54.5 / 88.0)

2. Wisconsin (52.2 / 77.4)
15. Texas A&M Corpus Christi (NA / 30.4)

7. UNLV (23.4 / 37)
10. Georgia Tech (56.8 / 72.5)

3. Oregon (28.6 / 62.4)
14. Miami (Ohio) (46.4 / 80.8)

6. Notre Dame (62.5 / 96.2)
11. Winthrop (53.4 / 46.7)