College Graduation Rate Catastrophe

The NYTimes goes above the fold this morning with an article about catastrophically low graduation rates at urban universities in Chicago. At Northeastern Illinois, 16 percent of students who start as first-time, full-time, degree-seeking freshmen earn a bachelor's degree within six years. At Chicago State, it's 17 percent. For certain student groups, it's even lower. The 2004 graduation for black men at Northeastern Illinois was 3.5 percent.

In other words, for some students, the odds of success are within the margin of error of absolute zero. This is an education system that is statistically indistinguishable from a system designed to prevent students from graduating from college.

The article does an excellent job of systematically working through the two major excuses about why we can't do better.

Excuse #1: We're an open-access urban campus serving a lot of under-prepared, non-traditional students. We're giving them a chance, but of course not all are going to make it.

True enough. Nobody expects Chicago State to have the same graduation rate as the University of Chicago. But there's a difference between many students not graduating and hardly any students graduating. And the article shows that most other urban campuses that have similar students and similar admissions policies do a signficantly better job, graduating up to 50 percent of their students.

Excuse #2: Our students do graduate, but it takes them longer than six years.

This is a common refrain, the idea that the six-year timeframe (for getting a four-year degree) has become archaic, and if only it were extended the numbers would look much more rosy. But here's what the two univerisities have to say on that subject:

The graduation rate at Chicago State after seven years is nearly 35 percent, compared with the six-year rate of 16 percent, Dr. Daniel said. At Northeastern Illinois, where the six-year rate is 17 percent, the 10-year rate is 23 percent, university officials said.

I'm skeptical about that first number. I've never seen a research study about college graduations suggesting anything like a doubling of graduation rates between years six and seven. It's much more likely to see numbers like those at Northeastern Illinois, which basically say that if you extend the timeframe all the way out to a full decade, the numbers go from terrible to...slightly less terrible.

Helping students graduate who arrive on campus with many risk factors, who don't have strong momentum toward completion, is a very difficult job. But that can't be a reason to accept success rates that are almsot as low as they could be--particularly when other institutions with the same challenges do much better.

Fenty-astic?

I feel like I should have something smart to say about Tuesday's election and Adrian Fenty as the next Mayor of D.C., but I don't. (Nathan at DCedublog, where are you when I need you?) People in D.C.'s charter movement who know more than I do about this and whose opinions I respect seem to think Fenty will be more supportive of charter schools than the other major candidates would have been, but there's still a lot of uncertainty about what a Fenty administration will mean for both DCPS and the city's charter schools.

Education was a big issue in the election. (Both Cropp and Fenty seemed to spend a lot of money sending me glossy folders proclaiming how much they cared about the schools.) But it's an open question whether that attention will translate into real school improvements. (I'm not holding my breath.) In November, D.C. voters will elect a new school board president, and voters in Wards 5, 6, 7 & 8 also choose school board district reps, so stay tuned.

Andy has related non-D.C. election news, too.

A World of Worries

In return for getting to the Capitol Hill Club by 9am on Tuesday, I got an excellent breakfast (there was salmon) and a snappy mini-disk that held OECD’s 421-page 2006 Education at “Glance”. While this tome of international education information might not have gotten a ton of press in the United States, (perhaps because there’s not much new in it – we’re still treading water while other countries move up in the charts), it has gotten some interesting international coverage, showing that we’re not the only country with worries.

Britain and Canada’s concerns sounds familiar, while the talk in Ireland is about class size. The Czech Republic is concerned about low college spending, and, on the other hemisphere, Australia and Korea are talking about their high college fees (though they are still lower than the U.S.). Finally, Germany and Israel are looking for all-around change.

Evidence that around the world, the OECD data will be used (wisely, and probably also unwisely) to pursue a variety of education reform agendas.

The Wire Week One: "The Boys of Summer"

The fourth season of The Wire kicked off last night, and I'm happy to report that the show hasn't lost a step, despite the third season's conclusion of host of major dramatic arcs. It begins with the funniest Home Depot scene ever, and concludes with the realization that the rowhouses that have seen the steady death of the city's families, aspirations, and future have literally been turned into a graveyard. In between, it follows the huge cast of police, drug dealers, addicts, politicians, and teachers, all with unsparing honesty. Depending on the person, it's no more or less than they deserve.

The Wire also follows four new characters, all black middle-school boys from the west side of Baltimore. The central question is whether a school system where, to quote one character, "not a goddamn thing works like it should" can overcome the inescapable influence of the economically depressed, drug-ravaged world around the boys. As other scenes make clear, the time and distance between their lives and total ruin is surpassingly small.

Another major plotline involves the ongoing mayoral election and the candicacy of a white councilman looking to upset a black incumbent mayor. More than any show or movie I've seen, this episode really got across what a hugely difficult, exhausting, unpleasant process running for office can be. The depiction of life in the classroom struck me as similarly realistic, although having never taught I'll take Craig Jerald's word for it (see his post below). Craig, I think you forgot to mention the recent Antonio Banderas vehicle "Take the Lead" in your inventory of terrible, terrible teacher-based movies.

I always come to the end of an episode of "The Wire" wondering how they manage to fit so much into an hour. Partly it's because almost all of the words and scenes have larger or multiple meanings, which lets the writers say a huge amount in relatively little time. It's also because most television shows spend a phenomenal amount of energy assuming that the viewers are stupid and/or not paying attention. Characters in "The Wire" don't waste time explaining to one another what you, the viewer just heard or saw. They don't refer back to previous plot developments, or translate urban slang in plain English. They act like people, not characters, because the writers trust that honest stories about actual people are all you need.

Update: Matt Yglesias draws a parallel between The Wire and Watchmen. Kinda wish I'd thought of that (although I can't imagine anyone seriously criticizing the inclusion of Dr. Manhattan, he's the mainspring of the entire story....).

Sara Mead Hates Boys!*

Tomorrow afternoon Richard Whitmire, Harry Holzer and I will be discussing boys' and girls' academic achievement and whether or not Americans need to be concerned about boys falling behind academically. Richard's currently writing a book about why he's worried about boys (and thinks you should be to), I wrote a paper that looked at trends in male and female achievement and came to (mostly) more sanguine conclusions, and Dr. Holzer does research on the situation of African-American men and boys. AFT's Ruth Wattenberg will moderate. Conversation commences at the National Press Club at 1:00 PM. For more info or to register, click here. And don't be afraid: Both Richard and I have promised not to throw any food.

*No, I don't, silly! In fact, I like them quite a bit.

College Admissions for Sale

Anyone with even a passing interest in the undergraduate admissions process should track down this new article$ by Daniel Golden in the Wall Street Journal. Based on his new book, The Price of Admission, the article details how elite colleges like Duke and Brown systematically lowered and subverted their admission standards to recruit the students of parents who were either rich, famous, or both. Here's how things worked at Duke:

Texas entrepreneur Milledge "Mitch" Hart III, co-founder of Electronic Data Systems Corp., didn't know anyone at Duke in 1981. But after his daughter told him it was one of her top two choices, Mr. Hart called a former Duke dean he knew who promised to introduce him to the right person: Joel Fleishman.

Mr. Fleishman wrote a wine column for eight years for Vanity Fair magazine and cultivated Duke donors with vintage selections. "Joel used to give very expensive bottles of wine and put them on his university expense account," recalls former president Keith Brodie, who succeeded Mr. Sanford in 1986 and sought to restrict the practice of development admits. "Because they were millionaires, you had to buy an expensive bottle." Mr. Fleishman, now a professor of law and public policy at Duke, declines to comment.

Mr. Fleishman met the Hart family at the airport and escorted them to the house of the Duke president, where the family stayed for three nights, Mr. Hart recalls. His daughter enrolled at Duke -- followed by three more of his children. In 1986, after Mr. Hart pledged $1 million to a fund-raising campaign led by Mr. Fleishman, Duke established the Hart Leadership Program, which teaches students leadership skills.

I don't know about you, but my recollection of the college admissions process is a little different than that.

Now, one could say that this kind of thing has been going on forever, and one would be correct. The difference is that in the past universities felt no need to apologize for it, because they were perfectly comfortable serving promoting and sustained the privileges of class. Todays' world is very different, and higher education institutions--particularly elite institutions--like to think of themselves as the virtuous apex of the American meritocracy.

But like most truly worthwhile things, that status comes at price--in this case, not selling yourself to the highest bidder. Colleges have been deft at having it both ways for some time now. One wonders how long it can last.

Motown Madness

So, Detroit teachers are still striking, despite a judge's order to return to class. This means the start of a second week Detroit youngsters won't be in school. Detroit's teachers are striking because Detroit Public Schools, which has lost a ton of money in recent years and faces an $100+ million budget shortfall, wants to cut teacher salaries and require them to pay an increased share of their health insurance premiums. The Detroit Federation of Teachers is, instead, asking for a 5% pay increase.

I have to wonder if they're cutting off their noses to spite their faces. Part of Detroit's financial problem is that, like all school districts in the state, it's suffering from state budget cuts due to the state's weak economy. But Detroit's problem is much worse because it's losing a lot of students who choose to enroll in charter schools or suburban districts (Michigan has an interdistrict school choice program), taking their state per pupil funds with them. Last year the district lost 11,000 students! The strike-induced delay in the start of the school year is only accelerating this student loss, as parents--who have no idea when the schools will reopen--scramble for alternative educational options for their children. And the strikers are hardly bolstering public support for or confidence in Detroit public schools. Looking at the press coverage of some of the strikings teachers' behavior and some of the quotes from them, I can't blame parents for deciding they don't want to entrust their kids to these people. I still have acquaintences who live in Michigan (where I grew up), who marvel that, "these people just come across as fools."

I also find it hard to believe the Detroit teachers are gonna get that much sympathy from their local labor bretheren in the UAW, who've been forced to make significant concessions in recent years as Detroit's automakers struggle with global competition, high gas prices and ballooning retirement and health costs. But confronted with similar competition and health pressures, DFT somehow thinks it can strike its way out of facing fiscal realities. In doing so, they cast a negative reflection on the labor movement more generally at a time when the nation needs it more than ever.

I'm not blaming Detroit's teachers for all the problems there. Working conditions and school facilities there are abysmal, kids come into the schools there with all sorts of challenges, communities in which they are located are broken, central DPS and political leadership have failed kids and teachers in many ways, and the state's fiscal situation certainly doesn't help. But DFT's current choices aren't helping and may make the situation worse.

Update: DFT response on the AFT blog. Ms. Price makes a good point about the culpability of Detroit Public Schools' management and leadership. I have friends who taught in Detroit, and some of the things I heard from them would curl your hair. That said, I'm not sure she actually corrects my facts. Public opinion data on these issues is notoriously tricky--people tell pollsters they like teachers like most Americans say they like their Congressman. What matters is that Detroit parents are voting with their feet: 11,500 left DPS last year, and that ain't all people moving away. I'm surprised to hear Ms. Price dismissing the loss of students to charters, considerng how DFT argues that raising Michigan's cap on university-authorized charters would hurt Detroit public schools because more students would be lost to charters. I'm also surprised to hear her arguing that "[The funding Detroit Public Schools] receives now is enough to do a good job of educating our students and getting the classrooms right." I wouldn't want to see that statement trotted out during the next state appropriations debate.

This Week on the Wire: Craig's Take

An assistant principal walks a new teacher down an empty hallway and into a tired looking classroom. The new guy surveys the clutter of desks and debris. “So this is me?” The administrator eyes the former cop turned rookie educator. “This is you.” And I’m one happy viewer. As the second biggest WIRE fan around (no one tops Kevin), I’m pretty euphoric that the best television series in history is spending a full year taking a close look at urban education.

Let’s face it, Hollywood sucks at school. Remember the sappy Michelle Pfeiffer vehicle DANGEROUS MINDS? How about the sudsy BOSTON PUBLIC? No wonder my friends groan whenever I try to get them to watch a classroom-themed drama. But as a former Teach for America recruit (one of the earliest--I’m an old guy), I can’t seem to resist. Like Charlie Brown with that darn football (now I’ve really dated myself), I’m a glutton for punishment.

But after watching the first episode with Kevin last Thursday (pssst, HBO On Demand!), I can report that so far THE WIRE has it right. Of course, with its depiction of a condescending and completely irrelevant “pre-season” professional development session, viewers who haven’t worked in an urban school district might think the show’s writers have finally flubbed up and gone the way of hyperbole. But I recall having to sit through far, far worse. (At least the lady telling these teachers the pencil sharpener is a “hot spot” has a decent delivery.)

Let's be honest. As bad as the school system looks in the first few glimpses we got in the season opener, the show’s depiction isn’t nearly as grim as it could have been. Consider that Pryzbylewski (the cop-turned-teacher) gets hired before the kids have shown up. One out of every four high-poverty, urban school districts reports waiting until the beginning of the school year before making most job offers to teachers. (Factoid from here and great analysis of this truly awful practice here. Oh, only seven percent of better-off suburban districts wait that long.) Unlike many of his new professional peers, Prez gets to set up his classroom before it’s full of twelve-year-olds!

Thanks to Kevin for inviting me to guest blog about this season of THE WIRE. I'm looking forward to seeing how Prez handles his new job when the kids do finally fill up that classroom next week. Once the show's "school year" kicks into gear, it should provide an interesting opportunity for thinking hard about how policy affects real teachers and kids ... or, perhaps, how it doesn't. Stay tuned.