Harvard and the Myth of Tightening College Admissions

The New York Times reports today that applications to Harvard are up an amazing 19% over last year, with other elite schools like the University of Chicago, Amherst, and Northwestern seeing double-digit increases. This allows newspapers to get a jump on the annual circulation-goosing college admissions panic story, which usually doesn't run for another few months, when the same colleges will report record low percentages of student being admitted. So we don't have to wait until April to read some guidance counselor from a suburban high school breathlessly reporting that among his peers "There is a pure level of panic and frenzy like they've never seen before."

As I wrote here last year, and also at the American Prospect, there is less here than meets the eye. The Times reports, correctly, that the number of graduating high school seniors is now reaching a demographic crest, the largest in history. But the year-over-year percentage growth is quite small, nothing close to the double-digit rise in applications to Harvard et al. Similarly, there's no reason to the think that the percent of high school seniors applying to college has risen sharply; those numbers never change much on an annual basis.

What we have, then, is not a big increase in college applicants but a big increase in college applications. Which the Times acknowledges, quoting one consultant as saying, "There was a time when kids applied to three or four schools, then to seven schools, and now, 10 or more is not uncommon." This creates the impression that the odds of a qualified student getting into a good college are dropping faster than they really are.

For example: the article notes that Harvard (as well as Princeton and UVA) has ended its early admissions program. So let's say you're a super-qualified student. You want to go to Harvard, and Harvard wants you to attend. Previously, you would have submitted one application, via early admission, and received one acceptance. Now you've got to go into the general application pool along with everyone else.

Do you still submit just one application? Of course not. Applying comes at relatively little cost in terms of time and money--particularly to you, who are probably from an upper-income family. There's a common application, stuff can be submitted electronically--it's all easier than it once was. So you apply to Princeton, Yale, and most of the other Ivy League schools, along with a few other usual suspects like Chicago, Amherst and the rest. Why not? Harvard's not a lock, after all, you might get bumped for a senator's son, rich legacy, football player, or what have you. A few months pass, and the envelopes arrive. Some of the schools accept you, others don't, but you get into Harvard, and happily enroll.

Q: Under this scenario, what impact has Harvard's elimination of early admission had on the odds of a qualified student getting into an elite school? A: None whatsoever. The number of applicants didn't change, the number of slots didn't change, and the result for the hypothetical you was exactly the same: Harvard. But from the perspective of typical news coverage, it looks like admissions got tighter, because all of those new applications you sent to elite schools drove the total number of applications up, and thus admissions rates down.

It's true that by applying and being accepted to those other schools, hypothetical you gained acceptances that would otherwise have gone to someone else. But you didn't use them, so eventually it all comes out in the wash. Selective colleges set very specific goals for the size of their freshman class, which they meet by statistically estimating the percent of accepted applicants who are likely to enroll. If they miss their guess high, they squeeze a few more people into the dorms. If they miss their guess low, they take a few more people off the waiting list. Either way, the number of individual students who are ultimately admitted doesn't change.

Also: this discussion pertains to qualified students, those with the credentials to have a legit shot at getting in. Some significant percentage of applicants--and thus, some percentage of the 19% increase in applicants at Harvard--are unqualified, submitted by students who are treating the college admissions process like Powerball and have no chance of being admitted. An increase in the number of applicantions from unqualified applicants has no practical effect on the admissions process at all for the qualified student--but it seems to, by driving down the bottom-line admit rate number.

This doesn't mean that the increasing-applications phenomenon has no impact on qualified students. If your competirors are submitting more applications, you need to as well, just like you need to keep up with taking AP classes and accumulating the other current markers of achievement. But in the end, you're still you, they're still them, Harvard is still Harvard, and things haven't gotten as bad as you think they have. When the media tells you to panic, don't.