Population Projections Per Pew's Passel (& Cohn)

The Pew Hispanic Center has a new report by Jeffrey Passel and D’Vera Cohn projecting national immigration trends to 2050. Since most know that immigrants make up an increasingly big slice of the American pie, it may not be surprising to learn that nearly one in five Americans will be an immigrant in 2050 (vs. one in eight in 2005). But here are a few other things you should know:

First, if you thought the last major immigration wave was big, get ready for bigger. This 21st century wave of foreign born will hit 18% of the population by 2050 (compared to 14% at the turn of the 20th century).

Second, the Latino share of the population will rise to 29% (from 14% in 2005). The Asian population will nearly double from 5% to 9%*, the Black population will grow slightly and the white population will decline from 67 to 47%.

But, it’s not the kids that will make up most of that growth. The child population will grow slowly compared to the elderly one. Check out Fig. 22 (couldn't upload it, sorry) where you'll see a fast-growing elderly population compared to a slow-growing child population. Still more working-age adults projected, but the dependency ratio that Passel and Cohn lay out will get worse over time (59 dependents for every 100 workers in '05 versus 72/100 in 2050).

Overall, for schools, this means we need to be prepared to serve not only a more ethnically and linguistically diverse population of kids—many of whom will be English-language learners and many more of whom will be 3rd and upward generations--but we also need to be prepared to do a better job communicating with their parents and grandparents. We’re getting away with not paying attention to this right now but, as this report reminds us, need to get better quicker.

*correction: apologies for earlier error on asian pop growth- the asian pop will triple in number, double in % of total U.S. population.